XRP Ledger Volume Nears $50 Billion as Price Tests $1.25 Support

XRP’s sharp rise in on-chain transfer value has yet to translate into price strength. Data from Santiment cited by analyst Ali Charts on X showed nearly $50 billion in value moved across the XRP Ledger on October 18, 2026, while XRP hovered near $1.30 amid a longer-term bearish trend. The contrast is the story: a large amount of value changed hands on the network, but the available figures don't show buyers bidding XRP higher. Transfer activity and market demand can overlap, yet they aren't interchangeable measures.

Ali tweeted:

The scale of the jump stands out: transfer value had been around $1 billion on October 16 and 17 before rising several dozen times. That abrupt shift has drawn questions about what drove the activity. XRP edged down to $1.25 as volume surged, a divergence that leaves the signal open to interpretation. A chart can show that activity changed sharply; by itself, it can't explain who moved the funds, why they moved them, or whether those movements reflected a view about XRP's price.

Can XRP Hold Its Support?

XRP has since climbed back to roughly $1.30, which Ali reads as a possible sign that selling pressure is easing. He argues that holding the $1.25 support could leave room for a move toward resistance at $2, about 60% above current levels. That is a conditional chart reading, not evidence that the recovery has already taken hold. The distance between a nearby support level and a more distant resistance level gives traders a framework for watching price action, but it doesn't tell them which side will prevail.

Here's the thing: a bounce after a decline can reflect buyers stepping in, sellers pausing, or both. The price returning to about $1.30 matters because it puts XRP back above the level Ali identifies as support, but one recovery doesn't establish that the level will hold through another test. This is more significant than it looks as a measure of uncertainty: the same transfer spike could accompany very different market stories, and the price hasn't yet supplied a clear answer.

That recovery doesn’t confirm a bottom. A renewed decline alongside heavy transfer activity could point to capitulation, while a sustained rebound would strengthen the case for a recovery. The next move around $1.25 is therefore central to the analyst’s view. The distinction depends on what happens after the initial move: a brief return above support would be weaker evidence than continued price strength, while a break below it would challenge the current bullish interpretation.

What the Volume Spike Can’t Show

On-chain transfer value tracks the coins moved, not how many buyers or sellers are active. A large transaction, including funds shifted by a single major holder, could account for the jump without signaling broader demand. The spike points to potential volatility, but its cause and market direction remain uncertain. Similar measures can capture activity that has little immediate connection to open-market buying, so readers shouldn't treat the headline value as a tally of fresh investment or a direct proxy for sentiment.

The figure also doesn't, on its own, distinguish routine movement from transfers that reflect a change in trading behavior. Funds can move between addresses for reasons that aren't visible in a single aggregate reading. Without more detail about the transactions and their context, the $50 billion figure is a prompt to ask what happened, not a complete explanation. And this is the part most people overlook: a dramatic metric can be accurate and still leave the central market question unanswered.

What the Divergence Means for the Outlook

Price and transfer value answer different questions. The transfer figure describes the value recorded as moving across the ledger during the period; XRP's price shows where the market valued the asset. When those measures move in different directions, the gap invites scrutiny, but it doesn't automatically forecast a reversal. Here, the price's dip to $1.25 while activity rose suggests the surge wasn't accompanied by immediate price strength. That is a reason for caution, not proof of an impending fall.

If you're working in this space, the practical takeaway is to keep the network statistic and the price levels in view without collapsing them into one signal. Watch whether XRP can hold near $1.25 and whether activity remains elevated as price moves. A continued rebound would make the transfer spike more interesting as part of a broader recovery picture; a renewed drop would show that the surge didn't prevent selling pressure from returning. Neither outcome can be read from the transfer number alone.

For now, $1.25 remains the key level in the analysis. If it gives way, the source says XRP could fall to $1 or below; if it holds, the path toward $2 remains in play. Those are possible scenarios, not guaranteed price targets, and the gap between them leaves room for substantial volatility. The volume figure alone can’t settle which scenario comes next. The next test of support will matter more than the size of the spike in isolation.

One signal, still unresolved.