Crypto Volatility Is Compressed While Macro Risk Builds

Inflation reaccelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, with the 10-year at 4.61% (one-year high) and the 30-year at a 90-day high as markets price a Fed hike under newly confirmed Chair Warsh. The Iranian oil shock continues to feed through energy at +17.9% annually and shelter reaccelerating; apparel, airlines, and household goods face another two quarters of tariff pass-through. Inside crypto, BTC and ETH IV sit at the 12th and 1st percentiles, while VRP runs at the 99th and 94th, deep negative skew shows persistent put demand, and ETH block flow is heavy puts and vega selling. The mix is compression, not a regime change.